Nepal, a nation cradled between the towering Himalayas and the bustling plains of South Asia, stands at a critical juncture. Its youth, the heartbeat of its future, are voicing a mix of despair, frustration, and cautious optimism about what lies ahead. With remittances fueling nearly 30% of the country’s GDP—amounting to over NPR 724 billion (approximately USD 5.4 billion) in just nine months of the fiscal year as of mid-2024—the economy hinges precariously on the labor of migrant workers, primarily in Gulf countries. Yet, as these workers age and the exodus of young Nepalis accelerates, a pressing question emerges: What will Nepal look like in 20 years? Will it spiral into a workforce crisis and economic collapse, or can it seize this moment as an opportunity for transformation? Drawing from the raw sentiments of Nepali youth, alongside data and insights from credible sources, this article explores the challenges and possibilities shaping Nepal’s future.
The Remittance Lifeline
Nepal’s economy is a paradox of resilience and fragility. According to the World Bank, remittances accounted for 26.6% of Nepal’s GDP in 2023, a staggering figure that places it among the highest remittance-dependent nations globally. In fiscal year 2022-23, these inflows reached USD 9.33 billion, as reported by Nepal Rastra Bank, with an additional untracked amount flowing through informal channels. This money has been a lifeline, lifting families out of poverty, boosting household consumption, and stabilizing the balance of payments amid a trade deficit where imports dwarf exports by 34% of GDP.
However, this reliance is unsustainable. Over 700,000 Nepalis—roughly 7 lakh—leave annually for foreign jobs, according to the Department of Foreign Employment. A young Nepali lamented, “Going to foreign countries is assumed an immediate remedy, and an exponentially growing trend. Paisa ka bata aayera ka gai raxa? This is so frustrating!” The sentiment reflects a reality where migration is less a choice and more a societal expectation. Families pressure their youth to leave, and those who stay are often labeled failures. As one youth noted, “Just ask every 12th student ‘what’s next?’ They will reply ‘baira jane ho’ [going abroad]. If you stay, you are just a failure to society’s eye.”
The migrant workforce, largely composed of men aged 20-40, is aging. By 2050, many will retire, and with Nepal’s fertility rate dropping to 1.8 births per woman (below the replacement level of 2.1, per UN data), the pool of young workers to replace them is shrinking. The Nepal Living Standards Survey indicates that the population aged 15-24, the prime labor force, constitutes just 20.8% of the total 30.55 million people. If current migration trends persist, Nepal risks a demographic crisis: a dwindling workforce supporting an aging population, with fewer hands to drive industries or fund social services like healthcare and pensions.
The Brain Drain and Workforce Collapse: A Ticking Time Bomb
The exodus of Nepal’s youth is not just a numbers game—it’s a brain drain stripping the nation of talent. Over 110,000 students obtained No Objection Certificates to study abroad in 2022-23 alone, and more than 800,000 labor permits were issued in the same year, with an additional 300,000 in the first five months of 2023-24. A youth expressed the despair: “So who are staying in Nepal? Those who couldn’t make it abroad, party ka jhole [party lackeys], those who couldn’t study, drug addicts, rowdies working for politicians. What do you expect from them?”
This loss of human capital is already felt. The healthcare sector, for instance, suffers from a shortage of skilled professionals, with rural areas particularly underserved. The Nepal Medical Association reports that over 50% of doctors trained in Nepal work abroad within five years of graduating. Similarly, engineering and technology sectors struggle to innovate as talent flees to India, the Gulf, or Western nations. The result is a labor market skewed toward unskilled workers, stunting industrial growth and technological advancement.
By 2050, Nepal’s population could decline significantly if migration and low birth rates continue unchecked. The United Nations projects that South Asia’s working-age population will shrink as dependency ratios rise, and Nepal is no exception. A youth warned, “Our population is also decreasing. We could see a potential population collapse in the future.” Without a robust workforce, industries like agriculture (31.7% of GDP) and tourism (9% pre-pandemic) could falter, pushing the economy toward collapse.
Political Paralysis and Corruption: The Root of Despair
Nepal’s youth are acutely aware that the nation’s woes extend beyond economics to the political sphere. “We can’t expect our current leaders to do anything,” one said, “so we must vote for more capable leaders and replace corrupt ones.” Yet, the political landscape offers little hope. Since the 2008 transition to a federal republic, Nepal has seen 14 prime ministers in 17 years, a revolving door of instability that undermines long-term planning. The 2022 elections, while a step toward democratic consolidation, were marred by vote-buying in rural areas, where 70% of voters reside. A youth observed, “Illiterate and half-illiterate people outnumber others in Nepal. They give vote based on who gives them some money or food.”
Corruption compounds the problem. Nepal ranks 110th out of 180 countries on the 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index, and scandals like the Lalita Niwas land grab and fake refugee schemes have implicated top politicians. “Politicians are trying each and every way to leech money from people,” a young Nepali fumed. “I pay a hefty amount of tax, gets nothing in return.” Public services suffer as a result: the health sector is riddled with mafias forcing patients to buy medicines externally, and education is plagued by underpaid teachers and political interference in universities.
The absence of a pro-capitalist agenda exacerbates economic stagnation. A youth argued, “We don’t have any pro-capitalist party with a capitalist agenda. So, it’s natural to have a diabolical economy. With a weak economy comes brain drain because capital drives people.” Nepal’s mixed electoral system, designed to accommodate diverse ideologies, has instead birthed a fractured polity where no party secures a majority, leading to coalition governments paralyzed by infighting and cronyism.
Rural-Urban Divide and the 2084 Election: A Bleak Outlook?
The rural-urban divide further complicates Nepal’s future. Urban areas like Kathmandu face overcrowding and strained infrastructure due to internal migration, while rural villages empty out as youth leave. A youth predicted, “I expect downturns in urban areas. Unfortunately, most voters come from the rural side. It’s completely bizarre, and people get sold out easily. I don’t expect anything significant in the 2084 election.” With literacy rates at 71% (Nepal Census 2021) and rural education lagging, vote-buying and misinformation could dominate future elections, entrenching corrupt leadership.
By 2084, if current trends hold, Nepal’s electorate may be older, poorer, and less educated, amplifying the influence of populist tactics over substantive policy. The youth’s disillusionment—“This country is doomed. Leave it when you have time. I am regretting staying here”—reflects a growing sense of futility. Without a political revolution to elevate capable, patriotic leaders, Nepal risks perpetuating a cycle of stagnation.
A Glimmer of Hope: Opportunities Amid the Crisis
Yet, not all voices are steeped in despair. Some youths see potential in Nepal’s challenges. “Stop being paranoid,” one countered. “Migrant workers are not some fixed set of people; every day new people join and old retire/return, usually young enough to start something on their own.” Indeed, returnees have spurred small-scale modern agriculture and entrepreneurship. A 2023 study by the International Labour Organization found that 15% of returning migrants invest in businesses, from poultry farms to tech startups, injecting vitality into local economies.
Tourism, too, offers a lifeline. In 2023, Nepal welcomed 1 million tourists, a post-COVID record, contributing 4% to GDP. A youth working with Nepse and diaspora investors enthused, “The opportunity is clear. Nepal will become a tourist hub once again.” With hydropower exports to India rising—over 450 MW added in 2024 per the World Bank—and government targets to attract 1.6 million visitors in FY25, Nepal could diversify its economy beyond remittances.
Education is another bright spot. Each year, thousands graduate from Nepal’s universities, and a youth noted, “If one day they find they can sustain in Nepal, they will stay here. Many will come back as well.” The country has made strides—GDP growth hit 3.9% in FY24, up from 2% in FY23, driven by services, tourism, and hydropower. Inflation, at 5.4% in 2024, is below the central bank’s 6.5% target, signaling modest stability.
Pathways to a Sustainable Future
To avert a crisis and seize these opportunities, Nepal must act decisively. Here are actionable steps, informed by youth sentiments and expert analysis:
- Political Reform: Ban party politics in unions, bureaucracy, education, and legal sectors, as one youth suggested. A merit-based system could nurture capable leaders. A revolution, as another proposed, might be necessary to dismantle corrupt networks and foster patriotism over selfishness.
- Economic Diversification: Reduce remittance dependence by boosting domestic industries. Incentives for returnee entrepreneurs, tax breaks for startups, and investment in manufacturing (currently just 5% of GDP) could create jobs. A pro-capitalist party, as one youth advocated, could drive this shift.
- Education and Skill Development: Overhaul the education system to prioritize skills over rote learning. Partnerships with the private sector could align curricula with market needs, stemming the brain drain. Affordable, quality education would retain talent.
- Rural Revitalization: Invest in rural infrastructure—roads, schools, hospitals—to curb urban migration and empower rural voters with education and economic opportunities, reducing vote-buying’s sway.
- Diaspora Engagement: Leverage the Nepali diaspora, as seen with Nepse investors, to fund development projects. Policies encouraging return migration, like tax holidays for repatriates, could bring skills and capital home.
- Tourism and Hydropower: Double down on these sectors with sustainable policies. Eco-tourism and renewable energy exports could bolster GDP while preserving Nepal’s natural assets.
Nepal’s Future: Crisis or Opportunity?
Nepal in 20 years could go either way. If migration and corruption persist unabated, the nation risks a workforce collapse, an aging population, and economic ruin—a “doomed” state, as one youth feared. By 2050, with fewer young people and a fragile buffer state status between India and China, Nepal might limp along, neither collapsing nor thriving.
Yet, the seeds of opportunity are there. Returning migrants, a resurgent tourism sector, and an educated youth cohort could transform Nepal into a resilient, diversified economy. As one optimist said, “We can’t be too consumed in the future we never know about. The bright part is our country has developed a lot in this decade.” The choice lies in bold action—political renewal, economic innovation, and a collective will to prioritize Nepal over personal gain.
The youth’s voices, raw and unfiltered, are a clarion call. Whether Nepal heeds it will determine if 2045 brings crisis or a new dawn. For now, the nation teeters on the edge, its fate unwritten but not yet lost.
